Various nuggets and my thoughts

It's been a little while since I last posted something on the Brewers, so I'll attempt to play catch up and give my thoughts on what I view as important.

The Brewers sign Prince Fielder to a two year deal worth $18 million. I like the move in that Prince gets his payday, so he's happy, but it's not enough money where he can just sit back and coast (or grow if you know what I mean). It's also a good move in that the Brewers get some payroll certainty for next year. No player on the Brewers is up for as big a payday as Fielder next year, now the Brewers don't need to worry about how much he's getting. This allows them the freedom to make moves with serious salary implications without being held for ransom by Prince's arbitration. And for those of you out there that are still calling for Prince to be traded, I believe this only increases his trade value. A) He is signed for the next two years at under market value. B) He is still under team control for three years. Ever since becoming a diehard Brewers fan in 2001, he had long served as the glimmer of hope on the horizon and I believe in many ways, he has been the savior of this franchise. He's provided the Brewers with a star whose name is recognizable, his performance on the field has been nothing short of spectacular, and the increased revenue he has helped provide (winning baseball, merchandise sales as a fan favorite etc...) has set the Brewers up for success for years to come. So say what you will about Fielder, just make sure you slip a "thank you" in there while you're at it.

Rickie Weeks avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one year $2.45 million deal. I'm not sure if that number is deserved, but it seems to be the going rate so I'm not going to get too worked up over the number. I ballparked Rickie's value at about $2 million which is what the Brewers offered him initially, so an additional 450K isn't that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things. Tom Haudricourt over at the Journal-Sentinel had a great article outlining some of the things that Weeks has been able to accomplish while "under achieving". After reading that article, it's hard to argue that Weeks has been as worthless as some fans believe. Does he need to improve his batting average? Of course, at the very least, it needs to be respectable (.260-.270) and ideally, he could realize some of that potential that had him batting .400+ in college. Whether Brewers fans realize this or not, but Rickie has made strides in improving his defense, and I believe another year will see him evolve into a serviceable 2nd baseman. 

Corey Hart is the lone un-signed Brewer as we near arbitration. Assistant GM Gord Ash and Hart's agent Jeff Berry both agree that there is a disagreement on Corey's value. The Brewers offered $2.7 million while Hart is asking for $3.8 million. Where this number comes from is anyone's guess. .268/.300/.459 with 20HR 91RBI and 76R is worth $3.8 million? If Hart maintained his pace from April-July then I'd say hell yeah, but with his vanishing act when the Brewers needed him most, he needs another year under his belt before he starts overshooting his value. Jayson Werth, who I believe fits the Corey Hart mold AND had a better 2008 season than Corey, just signed a 2 year $10 million deal with the Phillies. The reason I bring this up is that Werth's base salary for 2009 is a mere $2 million (plus a $1 million signing bonus). So if you believe that Corey is worth $1.8 million more per year than Werth, I'd love to hear your reasoning.

And finally, the Brewers acquire Chase Wright from the Yankees for C/OF Eric Fryer. I don't know about other Brewers fans out there, but I'm pretty excited about this one. Since people like to focus on the negatives, everyone will come back to his performance against the Red Sox in which he gave up 4 consecutive home runs. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, he's a young pitcher and he was facing the Red Sox. It's not like he gave up four consecutive to the Pirates, it was against one of the most fearsome lineups in baseball. Looking at his numbers in the minors last year, you can't say that he doesn't have value. He's a lefty with a solid ERA and good groundball numbers (which is a great asset in the launching pad known as Miller Park). He's not a huge strikeout guy and his stuff resembles the typical lefty, but he's fairly young (he'll turn 26 on February 8th) and he provides a great option if one of our starters go down with an injury. While he hasn't had great success in the majors, he at least has major league experience, which is more than you can say about our current insurance plans at starter. He could be the guy that helps bridge the gap until Jeremy Jeffress, Cody Scarpetta, Zach Braddock and Jake Odorizzi are ready to break into the majors. With Mike Jones and Mark Rogers spending their entire professional careers battling injuries and former minor league pitcher of the year Will Inman going to San Diego in the Scott Linebrink trade, the Brewers farm system was left with few pitching prospects at the AA and AAA levels. I think they're 1 or 2 prospects who are near-ready away from being considered deep with pitchers. A trade with a team like the Detroit Tigers, who have 7 starters, would be a step in the right direction. I'd love to see Zach Miner or Armando Galarraga in a Brewers uni. 

THE BREWERS WIN THE WORLD SERIES!!....kind of

I recently purchased 2KSports' MLB Front Office Manager for the Xbox 360 and I now have a new path for the Brewers to make (and win) the World Series.

First move as GM: trim the fat off the roster (and I'm not talking about Prince Fielder). This was a painstaking process, but it leads to less headaches down the road. So I cleaned out unnecessary minor leaguers, since I have no use for 30+ year old players struggling at A+ Brevard County and set lineups and rotations to include players with the highest potential, not necessarily highest rating. After all, the minors are about developing that young talent. After getting that boring, but necessary, issue dealt with, on to contract negotiations.

Second move as GM: Offer arbitration to Type A and B free agents. The game does not take our current tough economic times into account and it assumes that every player wants to get paid, so what better way to get a slew of high draft picks? So long Cameron, Kendall, Sabathia, Sheets, Gagne, Mota, Shouse (for now) and Torres (for now).

Third move as GM: Offer contracts to players you want back. All players that are NOT eligible for arbitration, will accept the minimum $400K salary (Gallardo, Parra, Escobar etc...) . Arbitration eligibles are a little trickier. Bush ($3.3), Hardy ($4), Weeks ($4 don't ask me how they evaluated his talent as being worth $4 mil), Fielder ($11.7), Hart ($4) and McClung ($600K) were all worth bringing back in my opinion. So I offer the one year deal to all those players except Prince, who actually accepts a 3 year deal for $12 mil/year. Good deal, and no more arby. Capuano, Coffey, and other non-Type A or B free agents just aren't worth it.

So as it stands, I've got a lineup that goes (in no particular order) Braun at LF, Gwynn at CF, Hart at RF, Prince at 1B, Weeks at 2B, Hardy at SS, Hall at 3B and Angel Salome behind the plate (he's got more upside than Rivera or Rottino). The rotation is a little rough with Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Suppan and Villanueva. The Bullpen even rougher with McClung as closer and Dillard, Riske, DiFelice and Stetter filling the gap.

Fourth move as GM: Sign free agents. Other than CC, Sheets and Lackey (who was asking for CC money) there wasn't much on the FA starting pitcher market. And with K-Rod out of my price range, no closer caught my eye either. So I decided I'd bite the bullet and give McClung a chance to close games, but I needed an experienced backup in case he faltered. So I went back to the well and offered contracts to Shouse and Torres which they took. Also, with Lamb and Rivera as my only real bench players, I offered $400K contracts to Jose Cruz (utility outfielder) and Callix Crabbe (middle infielder).

Fifth move as GM: Address the rotation. With Suppan sucking up $11 million in payroll, a no-trade clause in his contract, and five years MLB experience blocking a minor league assignment, my hands are tied. I'm not going to pay him $11 million to release him, but I don't want him taking the ball every fifth day. So I look to the trade market. With a capable backup behind him, Hardy was my centerpiece. So after failed attempts at acquiring Matt Cain, Scott Kazmir, James Shields and Paul Maholm, I figured I'd give Detroit's Armando Galarraga a go. Throwing in Weeks to sweeten the deal, I was now $8 million lighter in payroll and I had a good young pitcher to replace Suppan with. And he's not eligible for arby for two years... sweet.

Now I have Alcides Escobar at SS and Hernan Iribarren at 2B. Season results: NL Central division title, Playoff series victories over the Mets, D-backs and Yankees to win the World Series. NLCS MVP: Gallardo. WS MVP: Iribarren. Dave Bush finish 18-4 with a 3.60 ERA, Gallardo 19-5 with a 4.10 ERA. Villanueva had lowest ERA for a starter at 3.24 but a record of 10-9. McClung got 35 saves with a 1.71 ERA and won reliever of the year. Salome, Fielder, Braun, Hall and Hart all had 20+ HRs and 90+ RBI.

Could this be foreshadowing for great things to come for our young Brewers? Time will tell. Tonight I begin my quest to defend my title.

Busy couple of days...

Big Red is under contract for 2009 as the Brewers and Seth McClung agreed to a one year deal for 1.6625 million. This is a bit higher than the 1.5 million I pegged for him, but nothing egregious. Based off of the contracts that have already been signed, the Brewers are still 1.187 million ahead of the arbitration process. Three players remain...

Rickie Weeks: Arbitration numbers have been exchanged and Rickie is asking for $2.8 million, the Brewers have countered with a $2 million offer. What is Rickie thinking asking for $2.8 million? With a career .245 BA, .352 OBP averaging 13 HR and 39 RBI a year. Not to mention a career .965 fielding percentage. He's shown an ability to steal bases, and when he gets on base, he's got a knack for scoring. Last year, 46% of the time Rickie got on base, he came around to score. But if you can't get on base, what does that matter? I anticipate this getting settled before arbitration, because that's the Doug Melvin way, but I think the number will be closer to the Brewers $2 million.

Corey Hart: Corey submitted $3.8 million as his arbitration number, the Brewers offered $2.7 million. Corey was the MVP last year... from April to the All-Star Break. His struggles down the stretch are well documented, but I believe Corey is worth a long-term investment. However, some news broke today that should be used when negotiating with Corey. Jayson Werth just signed a two-year deal worth $10 million; $3 million this year, $7 million next year. Arguments can be made that Corey Hart and Jayson Werth are the same player, but last year, Werth pulled through for the Phillis when it mattered most, in my opinion, making him more valuable. This contract also buys out one year of Werth's free agency. What I propose is sitting down with Corey and hammering out a four-year deal worth $27 million. $3 million this year (meeting the Brewers' salary requirement for 2009), $5 million in 2010, $8 million in 2011, $11 million in 2012. This buys out all of his arbitration years plus one year of free agency. You can't put a price on financial security either, just ask Ryan Braun.

Now the big fish, Prince Fielder: The Boras client submitted a number that everyone was talking about... because it was so low. With all the comparisons made to Ryan Howard and his record $10 million awarded in arbitration last year, Fielder submitted a number of $8 million compared to $6 million by the Brewers. Either number is defensible, Fielder's offensive prowess far exceed his defensive short-comings. On the other hand, Fielder's increasing weight is a major concern. Now comes word that Fielder and the Brewers are working on a two year deal. Early estimates say it is for between $18-$20 million. Also, the fact that Fielder was recently added to the Brewers On-Deck event, leads to speculation that it's to announce the deal. My hopes are that it's for $7 million this year, and $12-13 million in 2010. Ideally I'd like about $15 million to be guaranteed with an additional $5 million in performance based incentives (with a weight clause maybe?). Obviously not going to happen, but a two year deal would be excellent, would give some buzz to the upcoming season.

I'm sure a lot is coming in the next few weeks...

Baseball America's Outlook on the Brewers

Every year, Baseball America releases an article outlining each team's top ten prospects, along with who has the best tools, projected major league lineup in 4 years and a tracker of past top picks and prospects. Today they released the 2009 Brewers edition. While I found the information interesting and, for the most part, accurate, there were a few things I took issue with.

First let me start off with their top 10 ranking of Brewers prospects. While I have no problem with Alcides Escobar at number 1 and Mat Gamel at 2, I find it hard to believe they put Brett Lawrie at 3. The Brewers' number 1 draft choice in 2008 has yet to play an inning of professional ball and is making the transition to full-time catcher. Do I think he's a top 10 in terms of potential? From what I've heard about him, yes. But 3 sounds a little high. Let's wait and see how he adjusts to life behind the plate and professional pitching before we get too crazy. My top 10 is as follows.

1. Alcides Escobar (SS)
2. Mat Gamel (3B)
3. Jeremy Jeffress (RHP)
4. Lorenzo Cain (OF)
5. Angel Salome (C)
6. Taylor Green (3B)
7. Brett Lawrie (C)
8. Zach Braddock (LHP)
9. Cole Gillespie (OF)
10. Caleb Gindl (OF)

My list puts a little more emphasis on ability to help the big league club in the next two years, and a little less on overall talent ceiling. Braddock is a big lefty (6'4" 230) who had some issues with ERA last year, but his peripheral stats (OBA, K/BB ratio, K/9) all lead to a solid pitcher who just needs a little seasoning against professional hitters. I substituted Caleb Gindl for Cutter Dykstra solely off of my "wait and see" approach. Last year was Cutter's first year of professional ball, and I'll admit that he adjusted nicely but Gindl has been solid. .307 BA, .388 OBP, 13 HRs and 81 RBI are hard to ignore at any level. I look for him to start in Brevard County and be in Huntsville in no time.

Next, I'll tackle BA's 2012 projected lineup of...
Catcher - Brett Lawrie
1B - Prince Fielder
2B - JJ Hardy
3B - Mat Gamel
SS - Alcides Escobar
LF - Ryan Braun
CF - Rickie Weeks
RF - Corey Hart
SP1 - Yovani Gallardo
SP2 - Manny Parra
SP3 - Jake Odorizzi
SP4 - Carlos Villanueva
SP5 - Zach Braddock
Closer - Jeremy Jeffress

While I would love for this to be true, let's face facts. In 2012 Fielder, Hardy, Weeks and Hart will all be eligible for free agency and Gallardo, Parra, Villanueva and Escobar (most likely) will be deep into arbitration, not to mention the built in salary boost Braun is getting. This lineup would push the Brewers' payroll over $125 million easy. Fielder has shown no signs of wanting to play in Milwaukee and will demand big bucks, Weeks will play his way out of the big leagues and I haven't seen a lot out of the organization in terms of wanting to retain Villanueva for the long haul. I can see Hardy, Hart, Gallardo and Parra as the main targets for long term deals that will keep them here through 2012. I wouldn't be surprised if Doug wants to keep Bush around as well, the next two years will be vital to Bush's continued career in Milwaukee. I offer you my 2012 projected lineup.

C - Brett Lawrie
1B - Mat Gamel
2B - JJ Hardy
3B - Taylor Green
SS - Alcides Escobar
LF - Ryan Braun
CF - Lorenzo Cain
RF - Corey Hart
SP1 - Yovani Gallardo
SP2 - Manny Parra
SP3 - Jake Odorizzi
SP4 - Zach Braddock
SP5 - Dave Bush
Closer - Jeremy Jeffress

I see Gamel's defensive shortcomings forcing a move to 1st, and with Taylor Green behind him, there won't be much reason NOT to. Lorenzo Cain had a monster Fall League and continues to shoot through the system. As the organization's "Best Defensive Outfield" there's no reason to believe he can't man center in Miller Park. I know what some of you are saying, "Angel Salome is your 5th best prospect and you don't have him on the big league club?" I see Angel as a major trade chip to try and bridge the gap in the starting rotation until Odorizzi and Braddock are ready. Catchers with offensive talent like Salome are hard to come by and he will be heavily sought after if he proves he can handle pitchers with the bat AND glove.

Bushy Avoids Arbitration, Melvin Coming Out Ahead

Dave Bush avoided arbitration by agreeing to a 1 year, $4 million contract with the Brewers. Bush has been the most reliable starter the Brewers have had over the past three years. He may not be the most talented, or have the greatest stuff, but the guy knows how to take the mound every five days and get the job done. He has pitched 180+ innings in each of his three years as a Brewer, for a guy who's been considered a fifth starter for most of that time, that's pretty good. Bush posted his best full season ERA of his career in 2008, mainly due to a red-hot second half. Bush also posted the only postseason victory for the Brewers against an exceptionally talented Phillies lineup which features 3 MVP candidates (Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard).

While I don't anticipate Bush being an ace by any stretch of the imagination, I am going to set some goals (and Dave should consider using these). 15 wins, less than 10 losses, 200+ innings and an ERA under 4.25. There are some signs that show that Bush can get it done. His WHIP of 1.14 last year was 5th best in the NL. His strikeout to walk ratio in 2006 was the NL best and in 2007 he finished 7th in that category. In his first three seasons in the majors, Bush averaged 2 complete games a season. What this tells me is that Bush is able to limit baserunners (which is key for a pitcher that gives up HRs), he's able to miss bats and strikeout batters when need be, and he's shown the ability to pitch deep into games and eat up innings.

I've got big things in mind for Dave but what I want him to focus on from now until Spring Training, is bringing back the 'stache (pictured above). So even if he sucks it up, at least he looks bad ass.

Sidenote: Based off of my arbitration raise projections, Doug Melvin is up $1.35 million between the Bush and Hardy signings. I predicted both would have salaries of $5 million and Doug has settled both with contracts under that number. Way to go Doug, let's get the rest of these contracts taken care of so you can make a move that'll silence the doubters.

J.J. Avoids Arbitration

Doug Melvin is one step ahead of the game as per usual. J.J. Hardy and the Brewers avoid arbitration and agree to a one year $4.65 million contract for 2009. J.J. is the first of a group of Brewers due for a hefty pay raise to sign a contract for 2009. In past blogs, I have tried to estimate these raises for the sake of figuring payroll numbers and I had J.J. pegged for $5 million. So in my estimation, Doug is coming out ahead so far. Granted it's only $350,000 ahead, but when you're a mall market team like the Brewers, every penny counts. 

Over the past two seasons, J.J. has shed the label of "injury-prone" and produced in a big way. How many teams out there would love to have a shortstop capable of 25+ HR and 75+ RBI, all while playing gold glove caliber defense. His defensive numbers have slipped slightly over the past two seasons, but he still plays better than the league average, and his offensive production has more than made up for any defensive miscues.

While I'd love to see J.J. locked up with a multi-year deal (coupled with a move to third or second base), I'll settle for one year deals that avoid arbitration. I realize that the Brewers are probably going to address their 2009 payroll issues before investing multi-year deals in their young core players, but hopefully after the arbitration hearings are over in mid-February, they look in to long term deals, especially for Hardy, Hart, Gallardo and Parra. Maybe wait a year on Gallardo, to see if he can stay healthy for a whole season.

ESPN makes me want to puke

Reading the reaction to the Hoffman signing and then comparing it to the Smoltz reaction is enough to put me into a Grand Mal seizure. Two guys, same age, both HoF material are moving to new clubs after spending (almost) their entire careers with one club. One goes to small market Milwaukee, the other to big market Boston. Before I launch into my diatribe, I want everyone to know that I like John Smoltz. I'm of the opinion that he's going to be in the Hall when all is said and done. If the Brewers would have signed him, I would have been elated. That being said, I shall continue. So I'm sitting at work and word comes down that Hoffman has chosen us over the Dodgers. Oh happy day, right? So I head over to the four-letter network's website to get confirmation, hear their opinions etc... and what greets me as front page news on their MLB page? John Smoltz is CLOSE to a deal with the Red Sox. GIVE ME A BREAK! It's not like we just signed a career minor leaguer to a deal with an invite to Spring Training! We just signed the all-time career saves leader. This is just the beginning of the disgusting injustice.

So after reading the analysis from both signings (as Smoltz did end up signing with the Sox), the general reaction for one of the signings is "great move, impact player, elite pitcher yada yada yada", the other is "washed up, over the hill, not gonna cut it etc..." Now one of these players is coming off of major surgery that limited him to just 28 innings in 2008, the other has had a remarkably healthy career (except one year) and has shown he can still get it done even on the league's worst team. So which of these players is "washed up"? TREVOR HOFFMAN!!! What leads these jackass, no-ball pussy losers to believe that Hoffman can't get it done? His "peripheral stats"? Care to elaborate? Of course not. The only peripheral stats that I saw jump in 2008 was his hits/9 and HR/9. Walks: down, WHIP: down, K/9 up, GO/AO: one of the best of his career, opponent OBP: down, I could keep going =, I'm just tired of making these "experts" look foolish. Someone needs to get in the ear of the brass over there and tell them that despite what Peter Gammons believes, there are teams other than the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers and Angels.

Don't Hassel the Hoff

I know it's a stretch, I just wanted to avoid the headlines that most other sites will be using from the boring: Trevor Hoffman strikes deal with Brewers; to the more "clever": "Hell's Bells" ringing in Miller Park (no offense intended JD, just not my style). Plus it leads to cool pictures such as the one below.

But I digress... I shut my mouth for a week, didn't mention names of players brought up in rumors or players I think the Brewers should go after and look what happens, the Brewers ink Hoffman to a one year deal for $6 million and an additional $1.5 million in incentives if he finishes 52 games. At the risk of sounding like "always optimistic about his baseball's teams chances" guy, I love the move. There are those that say Hoffman's time is over and he can't be effective in MLB anymore. To them I ask, "where are you getting this from?" It seems that people are only looking at two numbers, his age and his ERA last year. He converted 30 of 34 saves which is an 88% conversion rate, right on pace with his career rate of 89%. He struck out 46 while only walking 9 which equates to 5.1 K/BB, his best mark since the 2004 season and well above his career average of 3.85 K/B. Compared to career numbers, his WHIP was better (1.04 vs. 1.05), Opponent OBP lower (.263 vs. .265), BB/9 lower (1.79 vs. 2.50) and the fourth best Ground out/Air out ratio in his 16 years; and this is the career of a first-ballot Hall of Famer who just happens to own the career saves record. Oh, and by the way, he's the only player in history to record 30+ saves in 13 consecutive seasons...

Yeah he's old, but look at guys like Maddux, Smoltz, Rogers, Wakefield, Clemens (I'm not getting into it here) and Moyer who all got/get it done in the twilight of their careers. Hoffman's a vet that knows his way around a pitching mound and doesn't rely on 95+ mph heat to shut the door. He can use his years of experience (a devastating changeup doesn't hurt either) to get his way through the ninth and get Brewers fans back to their homes happy. Do I think he's going to save 50+ games? Absolutely not. Do I think he's going to post a sub 2.50 ERA? Not likely. But do I think that he's capable of 35-40 saves? Hell yeah. Is he going to close the door 9 out of ten times he takes the ball? Not a doubt in my mind.

So let the naysayers come out of the wood work. Let them criticize the Brewers for misappropriating their limited resources on another over-paid, over-the-hill pitcher. They'll be the same people who will be buying the Hoffman t-shirts/jerseys when Miller Park opens its doors.

I'm done...

Here at JBB, I have decided to stop naming names in players that I think the Brewers should sign/trade for. If you've been reading my recent articles, you would know when this all started: J.J. Putz. I wrote a big article about freeing up payroll and trading for Seattle's closer. What happens the very next day? He gets traded to the freaking Mets... where he isn't even going to close. 

Then along comes the will they/won't they trade of Mike Cameron for Melky Cabrera and Kei Igawa(maybe). Here I am saying it's a done deal, talking about it like it's already happened and explaining what I view as the benefits of the trade... then it dies.

 Then Doug Melvin comes out and names some names of pitchers he wants to sign of the Shady Acres Retirement Complex softball team and I view Randy Johnson as the most solid choice and how he'd be a good fit if the Brewers are serious about upgrading the rotation. San Francisco beats us to the punch. How many games did they win last year? Can anyone out there name their starting infield? How about the outfield? You're telling me that we couldn't lure this guy away from a "superior location" (if you like hacky-sack and Jerry Garcia) just by the fact that he might actually win with us? Even if he only gives up 2 or 3 runs over 6-7 innings, that offense is only going to score 1 run. Randy, you're just pushing 300 farther and farther away. I'm done being bitter about that one.

And now for the latest kick to my baseball groin: Brian Fuentes. 2 years $17 million? You're telling me we couldn't beat that offer? WE GAVE $10 MILLION TO ERIC FREAKING GAGNE!!! I just need to face facts that we are going to be stuck with our current roster and whatever reclamation project Doug finally decides on (Chad Cordero*)

* - that was my last name drop, I promise

Paging Doug Melvin...

Has anybody seen Doug Melvin since the Winter Meetings? Anybody taken a phone call? I'd settle for receiving a Christmas card from the best 'stache in Milwaukee (now that Maddux is gone). I realize the Brewers have to be bargain hunters, especially with the contracts of Suppan, Cameron and Hall weighing us down and the uncertainty of what arbitration will bring for our young core... but COME ON!!! Give me something Doug! I couldn't care less (hyperbole) about the Brewers signing Jorge Julio, Trot Nixon, Chris Duffy and Scott Thorman. The most interesting Brewers hot stove info is the Brewers might have interest in Braden Looper enough to offer a contract. Give me a reason to put my butt in a Miller Park seat next year (even though I'll be there anyway). I'm not looking for you to sign Derek Lowe or the left-handed Jeff Suppan (Randy Wolf). I just want you to sign a player that other major league teams are interested in too. Not some guy that's just grateful to have a minor league contract, a major league caliber player that would be a factor on teams not named the Pirates, Padres or Orioles.

2009 Payroll: If the Season Started Today...

No rumors, no trades, no free agents... Using only the moves the Brewers have already made and the players already in the system, I anticipate the team to be structured as follows (salary in parentheses):

SP1: Yovani Gallardo ($400K)
SP2: David Bush ($5M est.)
SP3: Jeff Suppan ($12.5M )
SP4: Manny Parra ($400K)
SP5: Seth McClung ($1.5M est.)

Closer: Carlos Villanueva ($400K) - Not the prototypical closer, but pitched key innings in 2008 and is fearless on the mound which is the mindset you need to suceed in the ninth inning.

Setup: Todd Coffey ($800K)/ Jorge Julio ($950K) - Both have closing experience but faltered for various reasons. Should be able to execute high pressure pitches for the Brewers down the stretch to preserve leads.

6th/7th innning: Eduardo Morlan ($400K)/David Riske ($4.25M) - Though he is the Brewers Rule 5 pick, management likes Morlan to slide into this role because he throws strikes and can bring it with a 93MPH fastball. Riske is looking to bounce back from an under performance/injury plagued 2008 season. Was able to pitch in key spots for the Royals before being acquired by the Brewers.

Lefties: Mitch Stetter ($400K)/ R.J. Swindle ($400K) - I see the Brewers carrying two lefties to give Macha more chances to play matchups and not worry about saving a lefty for later in the game. If both are limited to facing lefties, I see a lot of success and productive seasons from the two young lefties.

Spot Starter/ X-Factor: Chris Capuano ($500K-$3.7M) - It's good to see Chris bounce back from a second Tommy John surgery but just how effective is he going to be? I see Chris either making the team out of Spring Training as a middle reliever/spot starter, or going to Nashville to make a couple of starts before being brought up in May to fill that same role, it all depends on how far along he is.

As for the everday lineup, that seems to be set in stone without any surprises, here's the rundown:

1B: Prince Fielder ($7M est.)
2B: Rickie Weeks ($2M est.)
SS: J.J. Hardy ($5M est.)
3B: Bill Hall ($6.8M)
LF: Ryan Braun ($745K)
CF: Mike Cameron ($10M)
RF: Corey Hart ($3.5M est.)
C: Jason Kendall ($4.6M)

Bench:
C: Mike Rivera ($400K) - Melvin and Ash have both said they feel comfortable with their catching tandem of Kendall and Rivera, here's to another year at Nashville for Vinny Rottino.

Util IF/LH PH: Mike Lamb ($400K) - Lamb can fill in at 1st and 3rd and may find himself in a platoon at third depending on how much Hall struggles with righties out of the gate. Though I see Hall getting the chance to prove he's still an everyday player.

Util OF/ Pinch-runner: Tony Gwynn Jr. ($400K) - I think this is finally going to be the year that TGJ stays on the big league club from opening day to October. His speed makes him a useful tool on the base paths late in a game and he can realistically play all three outfield positions should anyone need a day off.

LH PH/ Util OF: Trot Nixon ($400K) - I see Trot being Macha's first man off the bench in a pinch hit situation. Though he can play either corner outfield position, I don't see this happening unless it's an extreme emergency.

For those of you who have not been counting, that gives the Brewers an opening day payroll of $69.145M- $72.345M (Depending on how many incentives Capuano hits). For this blog's sake we'll just say an even $70M. This team would be competitive but I hardly see it as a contender unless Hall and Weeks live up to their potential, Capuano returns to 2006 form and we get big (healthy) years out of Gallardo and Parra. That's a lot of "ifs". Would Doug be excited about starting 2009 with this roster? Probably not, but he would be content.

The Brewers have not announced what their payroll "number" will be for 2009, but one would have to assume it's around $90M due to the increase in season ticket sales and increases in revenues from ticket/concession price increases. That gives the Brewers $20M to spend. Ideally, I would like to shore up the rotation. Names out there are Randy Johnson, Braden Looper, John Smoltz and Randy Wolf. I'd also like to throw Andy Pettitte out there. With a return to the Yankees looking less likely by the day, it would be a big pickup in that we would have a solid, veteran lefty that isn't quite collecting social security (Smoltz and Johnson).

Those of you that know me are aware of my love affair with Carlos Villanueva, and I honestly think he could thrive in either a starting role or closer's role (I will NOT accept him as a middle reliever. Middle reliever's are pitchers that don't have the ability to start or the balls to close, he's neither) I would like to get a more proven commodity in to close games. My top two choices are familiar names to anyone paying attention to free agency, Brian Fuentes and Trevor Hoffman. It all depends on what Doug values more. If he believes closer is the more pressing need, I see him throwing big money at Fuentes and trying to get a bargain starter (Looper or Smoltz). If he sees a starter as the more pressing need, I see him throwing money at a higher profile pitcher like Johnson, Pettitte or Wolf (sidenote: I would HATE this signing, we already have one Suppan) and then trying to get the bargain in Hoffman.

2009 Payroll: Arbitration edition

In an attempt to figure out what the 2009 Brewers payroll will be, one needs to determine how much arbitration eligible players will be making. This is no small feat given that Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy, Corey Hart, Dave Bush, Seth McClung and Rickie Weeks are all eligible. That's three all-stars and the winningest Brewers pitcher over the last three years (not to mention the only pitcher to notch a victory in the playoffs). Let's start with the easy ones: Rickie and Seth. Rickie made just over $1M last year and I don't expect him to get much more given his performance, but you never know with arbitration, so we'll worst-case it at $2M. Seth McClung had a base salary of $750,000 in 2008 and figures to get a modest pay raise after a productive season. Seth was able to step up into the rotation after injuries and then graciously went back to the bullpen and pitched some key innings for the Brewers down the stretch. I anticipate him avoiding arbitration and signing for $1.5M for next year. Now comes the tricky part...

Dave Bush is 33-31 over the last three years. That's more wins than Ben Sheets (31), Suppan (22) and Capuano (16) over the same period of time. Bush is a solid guy to round out your rotation with in the 4th or 5th spot. He eats innings, strikes out a ton of batters compared to walks, and with the exception of 2007, has one of the best WHIPs in all of baseball. Bush made $2.55M last year and it's going to jump going into next year. I believe Bush wants to pitch here and will be generous in negotiating with Doug and Gord as long as they offer him what he is valued. I anticipate an agreement on a $5M salary.

Corey Hart made the 2008 NL all-star team, was one of the Brewers more reliable bats (when you exclude September and October) and is emerging as an elite defender in right field. That being said, he also has quite a few things working against him. First, it's his first year of arbitration eligibility and not too many players break the bank their first year of arby. Second, Corey massively faded down the stretch. On many occasions leaving the Brewers hanging in critical situations (swinging at a 3-0 pitch in the playoffs ring a bell?) And finally, he strikes out way too much and rarely walks. I love an aggressive batter as much as the next guy, but there's a difference between aggressive and stupid. All that said, I believe Corey is going to be an all-star caliber outfielder for years to come and I'd love to see the Brewers lock him up long-term but I can't bank on that so I figure he comes out of arby with a $3.5M salary.

When the offseason began and J.J. Hardy trade rumors were swirling, my initial reaction was, "who cares? We've got Escobar in the minors and Hardy's not that good". But then I thought about it for a while. How many teams have a shortstop that can play Gold Glove-caliber defense and hit .270 with 25+HR. The Brewers have a rare and valuable commodity on their hands. I now view Hardy as immovable as Braun and Gallardo. Hardy has explicitly stated that he wants to remain a Brewer and I believe he's going to be asking for about $6M for next year and the Brewers will be (initially) offering $4M. This is Hardy's second year of arby and after a year in which he made $2.65M I see him settling into a similar deal to Bush's $5M deal, avoiding arbitration.

Now the big fish, Prince Fielder. There has been talk of Prince Fielder getting a Ryan Howard-like raise in his first year of arbitration. Let me tell you why that's not going to happen. Prince has never won RoY, Howard has. Prince has never won a league MVP, Howard has. No player has more HR that Howard in the NL over the past three years, putting Prince squarely on the tier below Ryan Howard's level. Not to mention the decline in home run power we saw last year and his absolute disappearance in the playoffs. And there's also the weight issue. When Prince donned the #42 jersey on Jackie Robinson day, I thought the Brewers signed the Goodyear blimp to a 2-year deal... Prince (Boras) will be asking for $10M, the Brewers will offer a very fair $7M salary because Prince is/will be an elite player. This will go to a hearing and with the facts listed above, I believe the Brewers will come out on top. $7M salary for the Prince going in to next year.

Let the Offseason begin...

With CC Sabathia finally signed, the handcuffs have been removed from the Brewers and they can finally focus on improving the team as opposed to appeasing fans. I'm going to throw on my GM cap and show you how to get the Brewers to the playoffs in 2009. First, let's address the starting rotation.

As it stands the Brewers rotation is set at Gallardo, Parra, Suppan, Bush and McClung... hardly striking fear into the hearts of opposing hitters. Two quick moves take the rotation from mediocre to above average. Gallardo is a special talent and though he may be a year away, he's still a capable ace and I feel comfortable giving him the keys to the castle. So really we just need to solidify the two spots behind him. On the free agent market, I have always liked Jon Garland, and I believe we can get him for around $13 million a year for four years. His numbers don't blow you away but the guy has pretty good peripheral stats and he can step up in the big games. In two career postseason starts, Garland is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA going an average of 8 innings per outing. Having Garland, Bush and Parra behind Gallardo effectively gives you three number three starters which most teams would be very grateful to have three pitchers of their quality to follow their ace. Now for the fifth spot. Suppan has proved that his best days are behind him and he's not getting any younger. I propose we explore a trade rumor that emerged a while back. Let's find out whether the Yankees are still interested in Mike Cameron. Originally it was speculated that we could ship Cam (and his $10 million salary) to New York for Melky Cabrera and Ian Kennedy. With the vast surplus of starting pitching that is expected when the Yankees finally put their checkbooks away, Kennedy becomes 7th or 8th on their depth chart, but I believe that right now he's a solid, young 5th starter that has a lot of potential and can develop into a middle of the rotation guy. Cabrera is merely icing and he can battle with Tony Gwynn Jr for the starting center field spot. That gives the Brewers a final rotation of Gallardo, Garland, Parra, Bush and Kennedy while getting rid of Cameron's bloated contracted in favor of two quality players making the minimum. Also, in case of injury which Brewers fans are well familiar with, McClung and Villanueva are two serviceable stop-gaps. What about Suppan? I'll get to that next.

The Brewers need to get a closer and with dropping the bulk of their expendable cash on Garland, they will probably need to address this need via the trade. One familiar GM has let it known that his all-star closer is available for the right deal, and he's let it known that he's looking for bats, which the Brewers have plenty of... Jack Z is reportedly shopping J.J. Putz and we've got an over-weight slugger that would make this deal a no-brainer. J.J. Putz for Prince Fielder would be a bonehead move so some auxiliary players are going to need to be involved. Adrian Beltre has a bloated contract and for some reason has outstayed his welcome in some fan circles in Seattle. Beltre only has one year left on his deal for $12 million, this allows the Brewers to give top prospect Mat Gamel one more year to develop. He's a gold-glove third baseman that has an above average bat. In return, I suggest we take on Beltre's unfavorable contract in exchange for one of our own, Jeff Suppan. To sweeten the deal by including a mid-level prospect, like Taylor Green, Lou Palmisiano or Angel Salome. I bet Jack is more than eager to get some of his former draft picks over to Seattle. J.J Putz anchors the bullpen and Beltre removes any need for Bill Hall at third making him available for my next move.

Ask any baseball fan about San Diego's offseason plans and 99% will say the name Jake Peavy, but I'm going to argue they have more pressing needs. Can anyone name their starting second baseman? And with Khalil Greene in St. Louis, who knows who their leading candidate for shortstop is? With Hall available as an above-average shortstop and Rickie Weeks always a threat to realize his potential, I believe that is more than enough incentive to pry Adrian Gonzalez from their hands. Fill two holes (very difficult holes to fill by the way) and only create one that is relatively easy to fill. No brainer right? Gonzalez provides the Brewers with a left-handed slugger that can more than adequately fill the void left by Prince Fielder at the ridiculous price of $3 million in 2009. To fill the second base spot left by Weeks, the Brewers merely have to call up Alcides Escobar and slide Hardy to second. To recap the 2009 Brewers roster according to Justin, the linuep looks a little something like this (including 2009 salary)...

1. Tony Gwynn Jr. CF/ Alcides Escobar SS - $400 K

2. Alcides Escobar SS/ Melky Cabrera CF - $400 K 

3. Ryan Braun LF - $745 K

4. Adrian Gonzalez 1B - $3 MM

5. J.J. Hardy SS - $5 MM (arbitration estimate)

6. Adrian Beltre 3B - $12 MM 

7. Corey Hart RF - $3.5 MM (arbitration estimate)

8 Jason Kendall C - $4.6 MM

Bench:

TGJ/Melky Cabrera - $400 K

Mike Rivera C - $400 K

Mike Lamb Corner IF - $400 K

Hernan Iribarren Middle IF - $400 K

Gabe Kapler type utility outfielder/veteran - $1 MM

Rotation:

1. Yovani Gallardo SP - $400 K

2. Jon Garland SP - $13 MM

3. Manny Parra - $400 K

4. David Bush - $5 MM (arbitration estimate)

5. Ian Kennedy - $400 K

Bullpen:

David Riske - $4.25 MM

Jorge Julio - $950 K

Todd Coffey - $1 MM

Seth McClung - $1.5 MM (arbitration estimate)

Carlos Villanueva - $400 K 

Mitch Stetter - $400 K

J.J. Putz - $5 MM

That gives the Brewers and opening day payroll of $64.545 million. This allows the Brewers plenty of payroll room to improve the team via trade during the season as needed and also save money to re-invest into the team in future years.

Offseason Outlook: The Bullpen

I apologize for the short hiatus, life's been pretty hectic... back to something you care about: the Brewers Bullpen. 

The bullpen seems poised to go through a complete makeover as it did in the 2008 season. With Torres retiring and the unlikely returns of Eric Gagne and Guillermo Mota, the Brewers have some key roles to replace for the next year. First I will mention a little about our returning players. David Riske looks to rebound from a disappointing inaugural season with the Brewers. After signing a 3 year, $12 million deal last offseason, Riske started strong then battled injuries and inconsistency for the remainder of the season. Seth McClung and Carlos Villanueva were big parts of the bullpen last year, becoming two of the most reliable relievers down the stretch run. If Doug is unable to address the rotation holes this offseason, both will likely factor into a battle over a spot, but for the purposes of this post, I will assume they will be returning to the bullpen. Todd Coffey was a nice late season addition. He throws as hard as anyone and if he's ever able to control his stuff, the sky is the limit with Coffey. 

With free agent relief pitchers dropping like flies and the club held for ransom by the outstanding offer to CC Sabathia, it looks like the Brewers are going to have to build the bullpen from within or through trades and pulling players off the scrap heap. To me, the most important roles in the bullpen are the closer, setup man and lefty specialist. I will look at internal candidates as well as throw a few names of free agents and other (completely baseless) trade candidates. 

I'll start with the closer position... Internal Candidates: Coffey has some late inning experience and pitched very effectively for the Brewers in September, but as I mentioned before, Coffey was run out of Cincinnati due to control issues. McClung seems to be the best candidate to me. After refining his throwing motion to be a little less violent, Seth had plus control but can still reach back for the 94-96 mph heat.

External Candidates: As far as free agents are concerned, Kerry Wood is really the only name that I've heard linked with the Brewers at all. I doubt he is a viable option as he is looking for a deal for several years and might not be the best investment given the amount of money per year and his injury history. One name that I wouldn't mind seeing in a Brewers uniform is Trevor Hoffman. Likely only getting a one year deal, he could be an effective stopgap while the Brewers season Omar Aguilar or look to address the position down the road. Brian Fuentes would be an awesome addititon, but with the Mets interested in him, I don't see the Brewers winning a bidding war with New York. As far as trades, Jose Valverde's name has popped up as being available, but this seems unlikely as trades with players of that caliber rarely take place within the same division and with only one year until free agency, this doesn't seem like a good move. 

2009 prediction: McClung will be named closer.

Setup man internal candidates: Carlos Villanueva and David Riske seem to be the two most likely options for the position. I like Riske for the position as I believe Villanueva is better suited for the rotation or at least is better suited to a long relief/spot starter role as he is capable of eating up important innings. As long as Riske can stay healthy, I believe he is more than capable of maintaining leads for the Brewers next year.

External candidates: There are a number of good names on the free agent market including guys like Luis Ayala and Juan Cruz. While both would be intriguing signings, I believe that both will be priced outside of what the Brewers are willing to spend on relief pitching. One name that I see as a dark horse for Doug Melvin's 2009 reclamation project of the year. After missing the 2008 season with injury, Washington cut ties with their young star closer. 

2009 prediction: Doug Melvin takes a flyer on Cordero and he is utilized in a late inning, non-closing role. Depending on his performance, Cordero may be given the opportunity to close in 2010 and beyond.

And finally, the lefty specialist. Internal Candidates: Mitch Stetter ironed out some control issues and pitched some important innings in his September call-up. With Brian Shouse a free agent, I see Doug sticking with Stetter as he is a cheaper option who I believe can be as effective as Shouse if only put in a position to face lefties.

External Candidates: In regards to players I'd like to trade for, C.J. Wilson has long been a favorite of mine, but it seems unlikely the Rangers would give up on him as he is seen as a closer rather than a lefty specialist. On the free agent market, there's the experienced Guardado and another potential reclamation project in Alan Embree. However, for a lefty specialist, if Doug is willing to drop $2-3 million in the position, he might as well just bring back Shouse.

2009 prediction: In order to save payroll to address more pressing needs, Doug sticks with Stetter.

Coaching Decisions

The Brewers are not wasting much time in filling out their coaching vacancies. In a couple of unexpected (at least to me) moves, the Brewers have filled their Pitching Coach and Bench Coach positions. First up, Bill Castro is your (not-so)new Pitching Coach. After becoming a certainty like death and taxes, Bill Castro is back for another season in the Brewers organization, but he's getting a well-deserved promotion. Castro had become a mainstay in the Brewers bullpen, having served there for the past 17 seasons. As I mentioned in a previous posting, he has a great rapport with the Brewers pitchers, especially the latin-american players. It will be interesting to see his approach with the starters, having mainly coached players who would only see batters once per appearance. Obviously our rotation is far from being set, but I wonder if this decision moves Villanueva back into the mix for a rotation spot. Carlos struggled early on last season and it cost him his spot as a starter, but after moving to the bullpen, he became our most reliable reliever. How much of that was Maddux and how much was Castro remains to be seen, but the Brewers still seem to be pretty high on Villanueva as a starter. Castro is also the pitching coach for the Dominican Republic squad for the World Baseball Classic.

And now the Bench coach, Willie Randolph. The reason this move comes as a surprise is not because he's under-qualified or an unknown, far from it. It is surprising to me because he had already turned down a bench coach position in Washington, and there is still a managerial opening in Seattle. If you ask me which position of the three is most desirable, I don't blame Willie for choosing the Brewers, a young team that shows a lot of promise and has the greatest potential for success in the 2009 campaign. I feel very confident now with the coaching staff Doug has assembled, essentially having three managers in the dugout each with their own style and level of familiarity with the team and the league. So far I give Doug Melvin an A for preparing this team for the 2009 season. Let's see what he can do with the players.

Keeping Tabs on Jack Z

Word out of Seattle is that there is a manager position available and the process is going to begin shortly. Zdurencik says he has a list of 23 candidates, a bit of overkill, but a few favorites have floated to the surface. The obvious choice is Ned Yost. Besides being a manager for the past 5 years in Milwaukee, Ned also has experience working with young talent... Jack's young talent. While he wasn't the most popular figure around Milwaukee but Ned seems destined to get a second shot as a manger. Another name floated out there was Willie Randolph. Randolph had a similar experience as Yost this last year, but has no real connection to Zdurencik. The reason I'm mentioning Randolph is that Zdurencik was still with the Brewers at the time Randolph interviewed and he was able to sit in on the interview. Jack said he was very impressed by Randolph's professionalism. One last name is Lloyd McLendon. Brewers fans may remember him from his days with the Pirates and Jack Z and Lloyd go back to their days in Pittsburgh. Zdurencik has been quoted as using the word "proud" to describe how he felt about McLendon's work in the Pirates organization. I have now dedicated WAY too much time to a non-Brewers related topic, but I plan on keeping tabs on Jack to see how he develops as a GM.

Mike Cameron Rumblings

The biggest story for the Brewers to come out of the GM meetings surrounds the recently extended center fielder Mike Cameron. The Yankees are apparently extremely interested in Cameron even after the Brewers picked up his 2009 option. Word is that the Yankees are willing to part with Melky Cabrera and pitching. Cabrera had a disappointing 2008 season, however the Yankees held Cabrera in very high regard several years back, enough to force out Yankee-great Bernie Williams. Although I wouldn't deem Cabrera a failure and I believe he still has some upside, but not enough to be the centerpiece in the deal. In order for this deal to make sense, Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy would have to be the "pitching" that the Yankees are willing to deal. They also have a prospect that can throw lefty and righty, but other than the novelty factor, he's not enough either. I don't see this deal going through because the Yankees have shown an unwillingness to part ways with Hughes and Kennedy in the past. The only way I see this as a possibility is if the Yankees sign three free agent starters. Three names that seem likely are Sabathia, Burnett and Pettitte. That would give the Yankees 7 or 8 legitimate starters, hence an ability to deal young talent. I will be keeping an eye on the situation and update as it develops.

Offseason Outlook: Third Base

With the exception of one year, third base has been a bit of a joke during the Doug Melvin regime. Wes Helms, Russell Branyan, Craig Counsell, an old Jeff Cirillo... do I need to continue? The lone bright spot (RoY Ryan Braun) was so awful on defense, the club had to shuffle their outfield just to find a position for him to play. Last year, the combined offensive production of the three man third base platoon was one of the worst in the National League. And the normally sure-handed Bill Hall committed 17 errors in 113 games with a fielding percentage of .939. Third base is a position that Doug Melvin will have to address in the offseason.
The incumbent: Bill Hall. With the departure of Craig Counsell and Russell Branyan to free agency, Bill Hall is the only player on the roster that saw time at third during the 2008 season. Since Hall's breakout year in 2006 when he hit 35 home runs with 85 RBI, Hall has been a huge disappointment. Some circles credit his offensive struggles to having to adjust to center field (2007) and then adjusting back to third base this year. And believe it or not, some attribute his struggles to being uncomfortable with contact lenses (I've never seen anyone have the training staff attend to their contacts more than him) and he plans to have Lasik surgery in the offseason. Regardless, if Bill Hall is going to be the guy in 2009, he needs to do some soul searching to find out what kind of player he is going to be.

2009 outlook: There has been some talk of moving JJ Hardy to allow room for budding star Alcides Escobar at shortstop, and the two most logical choices would be second or third base. I'm going to argue that the best position to move him to is third. He has limited range, which doesn't impair you at third, and a canon for an arm (extremely accurate as well) which is a key asset to a gold glove third baseman. JJ has also shown that he can consistently be a 20-25 home run producer, which would fit well in a position typically defined by power.

Another option is fellow top prospect Mat Gamel. Gamel tore apart pitching at Huntsville this year but fell off dramatically during the last 2 months of the season. Initially, I began to worry that pitchers had finally figured him out and he struggled to adapt. However, it was later revealed that Mat was struggling with right elbow tendinitis. Hopefully that injury played a part in his terrible defense as well. From all the reports and scouting that I've heard, Gamel does not struggle with gloving the ball, it's making the throw to first that is an issue. While I love Gamel's offensive production, if our starting rotation ends up being Gallardo, Parra, Suppan, Bush and McClung/Villanueva, we are going to need all the defense we can get to support this below average rotation. While Gallardo and Parra are big strikeout guys, Suppan puts the ball in play, Bush challenges hitters in the strike zone, and Parra has a tendency to walk a lot of batters as well. Moral of the story is our defense is going to have to bail out our pitchers more often than not and can not allow the opposition to get additional outs. In conclusion, Gamel is still a year+ away from being an everyday third baseman in MLB.

Free Agent of choice: Joe Crede. There are only two things that turn me off about Crede: Scott and Boras. But there are a couple of things working against Boras getting his client overpaid. First off, Crede has battled injuries over the past two years, limiting production even when he was on the field. A career .256 hitter, Crede isn't going to tear the cover off the ball but he has 25-30 home run potential and consistently puts together solid at-bats. He is also a very dependable third baseman. Also, with the signing of Crede, this would allow Hardy to slide over to second base which would vastly improve the overall defense of the infield. The other thing working against Crede is the economy. Bud Selig addressed GMs at the GM Meetings and warned them of the difficult economic times we live in. This will not affect top-tier free agents like Sabathia, Texiera and Burnett. But mid-level free agents, like Crede, will find that teams don't have rooms in their budget to give huge over-valued contracts. This could help the Brewers two-fold. A) They could get Crede at a reasonable price per year and B) Crede might be interested in a short term deal to prove that he can be healthy, and also get another shot at a max-contract when the economy turns around. While he may not be a gold glover or silver slugger, Crede just might be the best value on the market and is certainly an upgrade from Bill Hall and a more than adequate stop-gap at third until Gamel is ready.

Final Word: If no move is made, in either a trade or free agency, Hardy is the no-brainer choice at third. Though for the overall improvement of the team offensively but mainly defensively, I like our chances with Crede. Choice 1A: Crede, choice 1B: Hardy.

On Deck: The Bullpen

Update on the Pitching Coach Spot

According to Ken Rosenthal at foxsports.com, Bill Castro will be given the first chance to interview with Macha, but Rick Peterson will not be considered. This is a curious move as he was the runner-up for the Texas job, given to ex-Brewers pitching coach Mike Maddux. One would think that being one of the most sought after pitching coaches and a history of working with the current manager in the past would give Peterson a leg up. Perhaps there was a rift between Macha and Peterson during their time in Oakland. There are only two men that can answer that question and it's doubtful that either will say word one on the matter.

Sidenote: In the same article, Rosenthal believes trading Prince Fielder is highly unlikely and I tend to agree. Just from a fan and marketing standpoint, Prince puts butts in seats and jerseys on fans. He's a rising star in the league and I believe the fact that Doug is "listening" to offers for Prince was just a ploy to see if someone would be desperate enough (Hank Steinbrenner) to sell the farm to get him. So unless we see another "Sexson for the entire D-Backs farm system" type deal, get used to seeing the portly slugger manning first base come 2009.

Replacing Mike Maddux

Mike Maddux informed the Brewers that he will be leaving the team for greener pastures... GREENer pastures, taking the pitching coach position with the Texas Rangers. Mike has been credited with many reclamation projects over the years including the likes of Dan Kolb, Derrick Turnbow and Matt Wise. The thing I will remember most about Maddux? His mustache, and the joy I got in watching him work that thing during a visit to the mound (do teams really still hire lip readers? I can tell you what is said in those meetings, "Throw strikes, get guys out") But in all seriousness, Mike has always been a stand up guy putting the players' achievements above his own accolades and I wish him the best in Texas. Now the Brewers need to look into a replacement. I'm going to throw a few names out there that you may or may not have already heard and what merits them getting a look.

Everyone seems to believe that Chuck Hernandez is the clear frontrunner. While Hernandez has had some great success developing young pitchers like Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson, he hit a bit of a rough patch this year. The Detroit Tigers finish 12th in the AL in team ERA in a terribly disappointing 2008 campaign which ended up costing Hernandez his job. The lone bright spot: Armando Galarraga who went 13-7 with a 3.73 ERA.

Doug Melvin also stated that he will give a chance to Bill Castro as well. A mainstay in the Brewers organization, Bill Castro has been very successful in working with the guys in the bullpen, getting them to understand the situations they're in and prepare them for the hitters they will face. The team knows Castro, which is a big plus, and he has built a great rapport with the team's Latin American players, but due to his lack of experience (which seems to be the buzz word in the Brewers front office) at the pitching coach position, this "interview" seems to be a mere formality.

I'm going to throw a couple other less talked about names: Leo Mazzone and Rick Peterson. Peterson has worked with Macha in Oakland which would seemingly give him the inside track. He has a history developing good pitchers into great pitchers: see Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson and John Maine. It was the Mets bullpen that was Peterson's undoing. After blowing more saves and big leads than Derrick Turnbow, Peterson paid the price alongside Willie Randolph. Given Melvin's track record for piecing together solid bullpens and Castro's ability to own the player's performance out there, Peterson would seemingly thrive in Milwaukee.

And finally, my favorite, Leo Mazzone. The fact that this man does not have a job is a crime against the game of baseball. Alongside Bobby Cox, Mazzone mentored three Hall-of-Famers in Smoltz, Maddux and Glavine. I've been comparing these three to Gallardo, Villanueva and Parra for some time now to anyone who would listen and I generally get laughed at, but if you compare their numbers at this point in their career and you look at their approach and stuff, this isn't so far fetched. Under the tutelage of Mazzone, this young pitching staff could be something special. Time will tell, but I like the fact that new blood is being injected into the Brewers coaching staff, regardless of who is chosen.