What might have been... A look back at Gallardo's injury.

Let me start this out by saying I would not change the Brewers playoff appearance last year for anything. By far my fondest memory as a Brewers fan. However, after Gallardo's all-star worthy start to this season, it got me thinking of what could have been. I make all assumptions in this blog based on this criteria: Yovani Gallardo would have produced very similar numbers to what he's put up this year. I say this because, although he is a year older, he didn't gain much in the way of experience last year, so this is really his first full year. So here goes...

With Sheets and Gallardo at the to of the Brewers rotation, the Brewers starting rotation is solidified with no real need make a blockbuster move by the deadline. With the struggles of Manny Parra come the second half, there may have been a need for a 3rd or 4th starter, such as a Joe Blanton-type pitcher, although I might argue that Seth McClung filled that spot admirably. What this means for the Brewers is they are able to retain top prospect Matt LaPorta. While I believe Matt was still a half year to a year away from being an everyday starter, his presence in the organization allows for the Brewers to be more active on the trade front this year. With our "young core" getting older and hitting arbitration, the Brewers are not going to be able to afford to keep them all. LaPorta has the ability to play first base or a corner outfield position, meaning Corey Hart and Prince Fielder become available to move for a top of the rotation starter for 2009. With San Fransisco's anemic offense, it seems that prying Matt Cain from them wouldn't be too hard with either of those two being available. I think what might be a bigger part of the CC trade than some people realize is Michael Brantley.

Michael Brantley gives the Brewers a dimension that they have lacked since the departure of Pod-zilla: a bona fide base stealer. I know that Weeks and Hart have speed and the ability to steal between 20-30 bases, but Brantley looks like a guy that can give you 40-50. Imagine having a leadoff hitter that can get on second, with either his bat or his feet, with Braun and Fielder behind him. Having him in scoring position consistently would alleviate the need for Braun and Fielder to swing for the fences in order to drive in runs. This will help bring up their batting average (and RBI totals), but this also has an effect that you might not think of. With a true leadoff hitter, Rickie Weeks can move to a more natural spot in the lineup. Personally, I saw Rickie as an ideal candidate for the 5th spot in this lineup and to begin this year, his batting average with RISP and RBI numbers show that I may be right about this. But when I thought of it a little bit more, I think that Rickie has about as much power as anyone on this team (yes I mean anyone), think of the damage he could do in the two hole. With Braun and Fielder directly behind him, he could feast off of the opposing pitcher's fastballs. Think of the damage that could be done next year with this lineup (depending on who gets traded):

CF Brantley

2B Weeks

LF Braun

1B Fielder

RF LaPorta

3B Gamel

SS Escobar

C Salome

or

CF Brantley

RF Hart

LF Braun

1B LaPorta

2B Weeks

3B Gamel

SS Escobar

C Salome

I realize that lineup places a lot of importance on our young players and there are those of you that will say "there's no guarantee they will be any good". But the same could have been said for Fielder, Hart, Braun and Hart (by the way, they're all all-stars). 

This last part is pure speculation on my part, and I'm more throwing it out there simply as a talking point. If Gallardo stays healthy all year, there's a chance that Sheets does not injure his arm. I know Ben Sheets is made out of glass, but when you think about it, most of the games he's missed in his career are from his inner ear condition or blisters or the wind blew too hard etc... Without the presence of a true number 2 starter all year, a greater burden was placed on Ben and Ned's shoulders. With two guys that can give you 7 or 8 innings night in and night out, you may be able to pull Ben out of the game when his pitch count gets high because your bullpen is fresh. Without Gallardo, Yost was forced to push Ben a little harder to secure some wins, this extra wear-and-tear may have contributed to his arm injury. Again, Sheets' durability has been a question since 2004, but a healthy Sheets all year could provide you with one of two things come the offseason. Either Melvin makes an aggressive offer to keep Sheets in Milwaukee, or Sheets becomes one of the most desirable pitchers on the free agent market and the Brewers nab another 1st round pick in this year's draft.

I thought I'd just throw those possibilities out there, let me know what you think.

Beating a dead horse

These days, four words are enough to make Brewers fans want to shout, vomit and cry all at the same time: Bill Hall is starting. I don't know that I can say anything new on this topic that hasn't been said in newspapers, offices, and bars around the state. This is just too much for me to take anymore and I just need to vent so here it goes...

WHAT IS GOING ON!?!?!?! I realize that Bill Hall is a "veteran" and has experience in this league. For a two year period, there wasn't another Brewer on the roster that I would rather have at the plate in a big situation. However, those days are long gone. Bill Hall has done everything the Brewers have asked of him, and for that, I am grateful. But this is a performance based business. The Brewers have held up their end of the bargain by forking over $6.8 million (by the way, $8.4 million is due in 2010). Unfortunately, Bill hasn't done too much on his end.

The thing that bothers me the most is that while Bill provides a cool breeze for the opponents starting pitcher, Mat Gamel is rotting on the bench. He is clearly the Brewers third baseman of the future, but he needs to be in there everyday in order to get into a rhythm. Also, his deficiencies on defense are not going to get any better by watching the game. From several years of playing softball, I can tell you first-hand that WATCHING Brewers games does nothing for your defensive prowess. His batting average is a little on the low side, but I attribute that to not getting consistent playing time. It's shit or get off the pot time for Doug Melvin. They either need to commit to Mat Gamel THIS year, or send him back to Nashville. I clearly prefer Mat in Milwaukee, but I wouldn't be opposed to him going down either. 

Alright, give me a minute to get off my giant soap box... catch you next time.

Glavine released: Braves' loss, Brewers' gain?

I know what everyone is thinking when reading that title. "We don't want a washed up, left-handed Jeff Suppan" but hear me out first. This move seems to be in line with a recent youth movement in Atlanta. First went Andruw Jones (who was terrible anyway), then Smoltz, and now Glavine. Chipper Jones and Bobby Cox are the lone vestiges of the Braves' former greatness. The move makes sense, the Braves have a surplus of pitching (good, young pitching to boot) and they figured bringing up Tommy Hanson was just as good as Glavine now plus the upside of giving a young player some big league experience.

Now, you ask, where do the Brewers come in on this? Manny Parra has struggled as of late, no one can deny that. But he is relatively young (27 is too early to give up on a left-handed pitcher that can bring it in the mid-90s), and he has shown flashes of what he could be. The problem for Manny is timing. Were this two-three years ago, the front office could afford to be a little more lenient with a young pitcher trying to find his stuff while in the fire of the regular season. But as it stands, the Brewers are in "win now" mode, and we can't afford to trot Manny out there every fifth day. Enter Tom Glavine. Just two years ago, Glavine was a 13 game winner for the Mets with a respectable 4.45 ERA. Not lighting the world on fire, but he was a guy that you know would pour his heart and soul out on the field every time out and give your team a chance to win. He has made it clear that he doesn't plan to pitch after this season, so I think we can get him on a cheap "swan song" contract full of incentives. I know that he's coming off shoulder surgery and that's no easy feat at his age. But he looked impressive in his minor league rehab starts (2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in four starts over 16 innings), and at this point, anything is an improvement over Parra.

Which brings me to the next benefit of adding Glavine: Manny Parra. While I don't want to see Parra in the rotation, that doesn't mean I want to banish him from the team. I think a move to the bullpen to work with Stan Kyles, who Parra is very familiar with, could be beneficial to Parra and the Brewers. It would give the Brewers a second lefty out of the bullpen, and it wouldn't crush Parra's mentality like a trip to Nashville will. Over Glavine's first-ballot Hall of Fame career, what seems to get lost in the history books, is that he struggled when he first came up with the Braves. In 1987, he had a 5.54 ERA over nine starts and in '88, he lost 17 games. He's been there before and could possibly lend a helping hand to Parra and teach him how to survive in a league where few lefties are considered dominant pitchers (Johan Santana, Randy Johnson and a few others being the exception). Parra talked about how much of an influence CC Sabathia was to him last year, but when you compare their stuff, they're not the same type of pitcher. Parra stuff falls in line more with Glavine's (in his prime, clearly his fastball isn't where it used to be), so tutelege from Glavine should be far more beneficial. Also, given Glavine's age, he's had to adapt as he loses the ability to throw certain pitches, and any Brewers fan watching Parra knows that he can lose a pitch (mainly his breaking stuff) on any given night. Learning how to win when you don't have your A+ stuff would be the final piece to the Manny Parra puzzle.

Is Tom Glavine the solution the Brewers need to get to the postseason? Probably not. But he's a serviceable starter that can eat innings and win games. Given the Brewers' lack of "top prospects" (Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel, Jeremy Jeffress and Brett Lawrie are the highest-profile prospects. And after the CC trade, I doubt Doug is willing to trade any of them) it's doubtful the Brewers will acquire a front-line pitcher via a trade. So those Brewers fans expecting to see Jake Peavy or Roy Halladay in a Brewers uniform, I think it's safe to put those dreams to bed.