Baseball America's Outlook on the Brewers

Every year, Baseball America releases an article outlining each team's top ten prospects, along with who has the best tools, projected major league lineup in 4 years and a tracker of past top picks and prospects. Today they released the 2009 Brewers edition. While I found the information interesting and, for the most part, accurate, there were a few things I took issue with.

First let me start off with their top 10 ranking of Brewers prospects. While I have no problem with Alcides Escobar at number 1 and Mat Gamel at 2, I find it hard to believe they put Brett Lawrie at 3. The Brewers' number 1 draft choice in 2008 has yet to play an inning of professional ball and is making the transition to full-time catcher. Do I think he's a top 10 in terms of potential? From what I've heard about him, yes. But 3 sounds a little high. Let's wait and see how he adjusts to life behind the plate and professional pitching before we get too crazy. My top 10 is as follows.

1. Alcides Escobar (SS)
2. Mat Gamel (3B)
3. Jeremy Jeffress (RHP)
4. Lorenzo Cain (OF)
5. Angel Salome (C)
6. Taylor Green (3B)
7. Brett Lawrie (C)
8. Zach Braddock (LHP)
9. Cole Gillespie (OF)
10. Caleb Gindl (OF)

My list puts a little more emphasis on ability to help the big league club in the next two years, and a little less on overall talent ceiling. Braddock is a big lefty (6'4" 230) who had some issues with ERA last year, but his peripheral stats (OBA, K/BB ratio, K/9) all lead to a solid pitcher who just needs a little seasoning against professional hitters. I substituted Caleb Gindl for Cutter Dykstra solely off of my "wait and see" approach. Last year was Cutter's first year of professional ball, and I'll admit that he adjusted nicely but Gindl has been solid. .307 BA, .388 OBP, 13 HRs and 81 RBI are hard to ignore at any level. I look for him to start in Brevard County and be in Huntsville in no time.

Next, I'll tackle BA's 2012 projected lineup of...
Catcher - Brett Lawrie
1B - Prince Fielder
2B - JJ Hardy
3B - Mat Gamel
SS - Alcides Escobar
LF - Ryan Braun
CF - Rickie Weeks
RF - Corey Hart
SP1 - Yovani Gallardo
SP2 - Manny Parra
SP3 - Jake Odorizzi
SP4 - Carlos Villanueva
SP5 - Zach Braddock
Closer - Jeremy Jeffress

While I would love for this to be true, let's face facts. In 2012 Fielder, Hardy, Weeks and Hart will all be eligible for free agency and Gallardo, Parra, Villanueva and Escobar (most likely) will be deep into arbitration, not to mention the built in salary boost Braun is getting. This lineup would push the Brewers' payroll over $125 million easy. Fielder has shown no signs of wanting to play in Milwaukee and will demand big bucks, Weeks will play his way out of the big leagues and I haven't seen a lot out of the organization in terms of wanting to retain Villanueva for the long haul. I can see Hardy, Hart, Gallardo and Parra as the main targets for long term deals that will keep them here through 2012. I wouldn't be surprised if Doug wants to keep Bush around as well, the next two years will be vital to Bush's continued career in Milwaukee. I offer you my 2012 projected lineup.

C - Brett Lawrie
1B - Mat Gamel
2B - JJ Hardy
3B - Taylor Green
SS - Alcides Escobar
LF - Ryan Braun
CF - Lorenzo Cain
RF - Corey Hart
SP1 - Yovani Gallardo
SP2 - Manny Parra
SP3 - Jake Odorizzi
SP4 - Zach Braddock
SP5 - Dave Bush
Closer - Jeremy Jeffress

I see Gamel's defensive shortcomings forcing a move to 1st, and with Taylor Green behind him, there won't be much reason NOT to. Lorenzo Cain had a monster Fall League and continues to shoot through the system. As the organization's "Best Defensive Outfield" there's no reason to believe he can't man center in Miller Park. I know what some of you are saying, "Angel Salome is your 5th best prospect and you don't have him on the big league club?" I see Angel as a major trade chip to try and bridge the gap in the starting rotation until Odorizzi and Braddock are ready. Catchers with offensive talent like Salome are hard to come by and he will be heavily sought after if he proves he can handle pitchers with the bat AND glove.